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  1. #21
    Nov 2011
    112








    :

    (1) .
    (2) .
    (3) .
    (4) .
    (5) .
    (6) .



    (1) Inflation rate
    : .



    * Growth of money stock at the internal market

    .

    .

    .










    2009 16 1.2% 1.1%.
    .

    ... 1.1 % 1.2 % .
    .

    ...
    (1) : .
    (2) : .
    (3) : .
    ɡ .
    (4) : .
    (5) : .
    . ( ) .



    "" .

    :

    .



    ...
    6 4 6 .
    .
    .

    ...
    ( ) ..

    1% 1% ( 1% ) .

    ʡ ѡ .



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    :
    (1) .
    (2) .
    (3) .
    (4) .



    .



    ѡ :
    .




    Interest rates .



    Roll Over ..
    .

    " " 5 .

    .

    =
    ( ) ( ) .

  2. #22
    Nov 2011
    112

    . Fundamental Analysis



    . Fundamental Analysis



    .

    ( ) .



    !!
    " " .

    :




    :

    (1)

    Economic Indicators
    .
    ( ) .

    .

    (2) Inflation rate
    : .

    * Growth of money stock at the internal market

    .

    ǡ .

    (3) Level of interest rate
    .

    (4)
    .

    :
    European Central Bank
    Federal Reserve Bank of New York
    Bank of Japan
    Bank of England
    The Central Bank of Swaziland
    Reserve Bank of Australia
    Bank of Canada - Banque du Canada

    (5)
    Stock indexes .

    Stock indexes .

    0.3 ٪ 30 0.3 ٪ .

    (6)

    USD/CAD .
    .
    .
    .



    .

    , .
    .
    , .

    :
    , , , .

    : EUR/USD = .9850 ( EST) , EUR/USD = .9700 , .
    .
    .
    .

    : .

  3. #23
    Nov 2011
    112





    50 100 .

    90% .

    .




    ( ) breakout .

    24 .




    .

    __________ __________________
    USD ____________ ____________
    EUR ____________ ____________________
    JPY____________ ________________
    GBP____________ ____________
    CHF ____________ ____________
    CAD____________ ________________
    AUD ____________ _____________
    NZA____________ _____________



    ( ) .

    ( )
    ( ) .

    ...

    ( ) .


    .

    .

    - .



    !!
    24
    ..





    .

    (1) .
    (2) ( )




    .
    50 100 150
    50 % 50 %
    - - !




    .
    !

    ѡ 16.30 .








    :
    ( ) . . . Ѻ 2% . .

    : .
    : .



    :
    ( ) . UK CPI y/y 18 2011 09:30 . .

    * 18 2011 - 09:30
    * 3.3 %
    * 3.3 % ( )
    * 3.7 % +0.4 ( ).




    GBPUSD :
    2011.01.18 09:30

    09:30 = 1.5966
    1 = 1.6073
    +107
    10:00 30 1.6052





    ..
    (1) 1- .
    (2) .
    (3) .





    () . ǡ . .



    ˿

    . , ǡ (GDP) (IP) (CPI). ɡ . . , .

    . , ɡ . ء .



    ǿ

    . ɡ . . ( ) . .

  4. #24
    Nov 2011
    112







    .

    .



    ( )
    Stock indexes .

    Stock indexes .

    0.3 ٪ 30 0.3 ٪ .



    ( )
    Crude Oil


    () "" " " " "


    " " ' 'derrick ' .















    :











    () 58 % .



    OPEC
    The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
    11 .

    (CAD)
    (USD)
    .

    .



    ...







    / USD/CAD ..




    / .
    .

    / .



    GOLD

    XAU
    " " 24 ( OZ ) .

    100 ( 31.1 ) 100 1500 1 1 .

    ( 936.73 $ 935.73 $ ) 100 935.73 $



    1000 $ 1 ( 100 ) 1 935.63 $ 10




    .. .

    AUD
    USD
    50% .

    ...







    / AUD/USD




    AUD/USD
    ... !!


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    130 .




    "FOREX" .

    .

    3 300 .

    24 ڡ 1.00 ( ) 9.00 ( ).

    .

    50 10 .

    11.1 10 .

    .

  5. #25
    Nov 2011
    112








    :

    :

    :

    (1) .
    (2) .
    .

    .



    :
    .

    :
    .

    : ( )

    .

    :
    ( ) .

    200 K 300 K .
    .



    !!
    :

    :
    5 20 50 .



    :
    30 .



    :
    20 50 !



    :
    3 14 .

    5 10 2 4 .

  6. #26
    Nov 2011
    112









    ..
    .
    .


    Economic News Calendar
    16 2009 - GMT+2 .



    5 ..
    14:30
    15:00
    15:15
    15:15
    19:00 NAHB



    15:15
    Capacity Utilization Rate
    ( : ) .

    2009 72.0 %
    2009 71.1 %





    ..
    !

    ( ) .
    ( ) .
    ( ) .
    ( ) .
    ( ) .
    ..
    72.0 ٪ ( 73.3 ٪) 8.9 1972-2008.
    68.0 ٪ ( 69.7 ٪) 1948.
    71.1% 72.0% 15:00 .



    15:15
    Industrial Production
    ڡ ݡ .

    2009 -1.8 %
    2009 -1.3 %




    2009 -1.8 ٪ 2008 -2.4 ٪ -2.0 ٪ 2008
    -2.5 ٪ 1.0 .
    -1.3 ٪ -1.0 ٪ ) 2.7 ٪ ) -0.2 ٪ ).
    -3.7 ٪ -3.0 ٪ .




    ( ) ( )

    1993 2009



    16 2009 ..




    2008 7.0 ٪ 2005 9.1 ٪ 2006 8.4 ٪ 2007 7.8 ٪ 2008 .
    .

    .



    .
    Industrial Production
    1.4% 1.8% 1.9%, 1.3% .



    Capacity Utilization Rate
    70.90% 72.0% 71.9% 71.0%.

    ...
    148.9 $ 74.0 $ 86.2 $ .

    43.0 $ 34.8 $ 34.7 $ 45.0 $ .

    38.23 34.65 32.80 .







    50 100.000 500 $ .


  7. #27
    Nov 2011
    112









    :

    (1) ..
    (2) USDX
    (3) COT



    (1) ..
    200



    (2) USDX


    ( ) :
    (DJIA)
    NASDAQ
    2000 Russell 2000
    S&P 500
    Wilshire 5000
    Nimbus 2001





    (1) U.S. Dollar Index -USDX
    " "
    (2) Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Index



    :
    U.S. Dollar Index -USDX

    6 :
    (EUR)
    (JPY )
    (GBP)
    (CAD)
    (SEK)
    (CHF)

    ...
    6 !
    12 .
    "



    USDX



    .





    ..




    :
    Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Index

    .



    (3) COT
    Cot .

    CFTC COT .

    .

    COT .

    COT 22 2006




    .. ..

  8. #28
    Nov 2011
    112








    :

    (1)
    (2)
    (3)



    (1)
    .

    Dailyfx PLUS
    FXCM
    16 2007 dailyfx .





    (2)
    .

    (3)
    .

    .. .

  9. #29
    Nov 2011
    112










    ...


    .



    .






    :

    (1)
    (2)
    (3)
    (4)
    (5)
    (6)



    (1)
    24 3 .




    (2)
    ( ) .

    (3)
    .

    (4)
    ǡ .
    ǡ .














    (5)
    .


    (6)
    .


  10. #30
    Nov 2011
    112

    Bloomberg tv

    Bloomberg tv


    Bloomberg tv . 24 .



    http://www.bloomberg.com/streams/video/LiveUK_nb.asx